Article by WN.Com Correspondent Dallas Darling
The logic of politics isn’t that complex. In fact, most experts agree all it takes is a winning coalition and core of true believers. Both of which are essential if a president is to survive. Or if he/she plans to run for a second term.
That same winning coalition and fanatical core, however, can be a clear and present danger. Especially when they consist of factions which are upset over your job performance and the direction of the country.
With his shrinking winning coalition and fervent core, the real danger for Donald Trump is consequently lurking within. Not only is his coalition shrinking, but so is his undying core of supporters. Since a dwindling coalition and unruly core is to what air is to fire, his big tent-catch-all party which seeks to attract voters from different views and minorities – may be burning down. What’s more, he may burn down along with it.
“In Trump ‘We No Longer’ Trust”
Ann Coulter, for instance, just lashed out at Trump. She took issue with how he reached an agreement with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell to reopen the government without any border wall funding. Along with declaring on Twitter: “Good news for George Herbert Walker Bush: As of today, he is no longer the biggest wimp ever to serve as president of the United States,” she admitted she no longer trusts the president.
She also called his act one of “betrayal” on “Real Time With Bill Maher.” Betrayal because she believes “Adios America,” her book about illegal immigration, gave Trump the presidency.
As for her latest book, “In Trump We Trust,” which was also a bestseller among the president’s core, she’s considering asking her publisher to withdraw it from circulation. This, because the president wants to cut other deals with Democrats.
There’s even an exploratory committee that wants her to run against Trump in 2020. Backed by millions of Tea Party voters and the far-right, who say she has a track record of many years about immigration, border security and amnesty for illegals, they expect her to win at least 6 to 10 percent of the vote. Some claim since she’s growing more hostile towards the president each day, she just may be upset enough to do it.
Revolt Of The Media, Elites, And Trump-vangelicals
Worse than a hostile core is a hostile state-run media that‘s turned on you. After Trump criticized her colleagues for not doing enough to help him win the debate over the border wall and government shut down, Fox News anchor Julie Banderas lambasted him tweeting: “Bullying journalists is not presidential. Period!” Later, she warned “Our jobs are not meant to please others…and that’s not how Freedom of the Press works.”
Another core faction distancing itself from Trump is the Republican Establishment. Not only were many House and Senate Republicans against a government shutdown, but they privately conspired on how to reopen it. Several Republicans even broke ranks and voted with Democrats last Wednesday to pass a spending measure to end the partial government shutdown without funding for Trump’s border wall.
Eighty-three percent of white Evangelicals, known as Trump-vangelicals, voted for Trump to “Make America A Great Christian Nation Again.” Nostalgic for a more fundamental and biblical past, some are wondering if he’s done enough to fight secularism. It entails not doing more to “reclaim” and “restore” America to its allegedly Christian roots in order to win God’s. As a result, if the Trump-vangelicals go, so goes Trump.
From A Winning To A Losing Coalition
Polls also show a faction of his winning coalition consisting of independent voters has been steadily eroding. The government shutdown only made it worse. Right now, his approval rating among independents is the lowest it’s ever been at 31 percent. That’s down eight points just from December. Like other Americans, they too have soured on the economy, which had been the president’s chief claim to success.
They also think Trump isn’t doing enough for job creation or increasing wages. On grappling with the opioid crisis and national debt, only 33 percent of independent voters say he’s done a good or excellent job. Compare this to 50 percent when he took office. A more revealing figure is how many believe the country is moving in a wrong direction. They described it as “disarray,” “turmoil,” “polarized” and “shambles.”
What’s more, the Gallup Poll showed 44 percent thought Trump would do an excellent job improving the country’s burdensome and expensive healthcare system. The number is now down to only 33 percent. Right now, 50 percent of independents say they don’t have any confidence in the president’s future performance, with another 70 percent claiming they have a negative view on the state of the nation. And the number is growing.
Master Builders of Disillusion
Since political architects of grandeur are the master builders of disillusion, Trump will have to pursue some sort of concrete reality if he wants a second term. Even if it means signing an executive order to build a wall to appease Ann Coulter and his far-right core. He must also stop attacking Fox News and offer more giveaways to the wealthy – like more tax cuts. It’s not known how he’ll appease the Republican war hawks in the Senate who are resisting his troop withdrawals from Syria and Afghanistan.
Kicking off his long overdue – and promised – $1 trillion infrastructure project would bring back many independents. So would making healthcare and prescription drugs more affordable. In fact, this is primarily why 40 House Republicans lost their seats. Meanwhile, Evangelicals were pleased that the president embraced proposals from lawmakers in six states that would allow public schools to offer Bible literacy classes.
But beyond Trump’s winning coalition and core is the rest of America. And the numbers get worse. From the economy to foreign policy, he has just a 37 percent approval rating. His two-year average rating is moreover far below the 61 percent average for the former 12 U.S. presidents since 1945. According to the Presidential Approval Ratings-Gallup Historical Statistics and Trends, even Richard Nixon’s was higher at 49 percent.
The Real Danger Is Not Only For Trump
Another component in winning a second term will be what kind of candidate and message the Democrats can offer to the American people. What happens in foreign affairs and on the state level will have an impact as well. Colorado, for example, just voted to do away with the Electoral College vote which Donald Trump won. Recall Hillary Clinton won the popular vote. And will Russia interfere on his behalf again?
After taking office, experts noted the higher Trump’s approval rating, the more dangerous he was. Can the opposite be true? Indeed, major security crises – real or imagined wars or large-scale terrorist attacks – are political game changers. So are departures from unwritten civil norms and political conventions. And then there’s always the possibility of the president engineering some new electorate to impose its agenda.
With an ever-shrinking core and winning coalition, some think the real danger for Trump is lurking within. Others warn the same is true of America. Especially when considering Trump’s lack of integrity and growing desperation to win back voters.
Dallas Darling (darling@wn.com)
(Dallas Darling is the author of Politics 501: An A-Z Reading on Conscientious Political Thought and Action, Some Nations Above God: 52 Weekly Reflections On Modern-Day Imperialism, Militarism, And Consumerism in the Context of John’s Apocalyptic Vision, and The Other Side Of Christianity: Reflections on Faith, Politics, Spirituality, History, and Peace. He is a correspondent for www.WN.com. You can read more of Dallas’ writings at www.beverlydarling.com and www.WN.com/dallasdarling.)